Reports and Publications

Marshall A.G., G. Wang, H.H. Hendon, H. Lin, 2023, Madden-Julian Oscillation teleconnections to Australian springtime temperature extremes and their prediction in ACCESS-S1, Climate Dynamics (published online) https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06586-6.

Heidemann H., Cowan T., Henley B, 2023, Variability and long-term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review, WIREs Climate Change, doi: 10.1002/wcc.823.

Marshall A., Wheeler M., Cowan, T., 2023, Madden-Julian Oscillation Impacts on Australian Temperatures and Extremes, J. Climate 36 (2), 335-357, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0413.1.

Cowan, T., Wheeler M., Marshall A., 2023, The Combined Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Australian Rainfall, J. Climate 36 (2), 313-334, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0357.1.

Liang, J., Yong, Y., Hawcroft, M., 2023, Long-term trends in atmospheric rivers over East Asia, Climate Dynamics, 60, 643-666, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06339-5.

S. Sharmila, H. Hendon, O. Alves, A. Weisheimer, M. Balmaseda, 2023, Contrasting El Niño-La Niña Predictability and Prediction Skill in 2-Year Reforecasts of the Twentieth Century, Journal of Climate (2023), 36(5), 1269-1285, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/5/JCLI-D-22-0028.1.xml.

Sally Lavender, Tim Cowan, Matthew Hawcroft, Matthew C. Wheeler, Chelsea Jarvis, David Cobon, Hanh Nguyen, Debra Hudson, S. Sharmila, Andrew Marshall, Catherine de Burgh-Day, Sean Milton, Alison Stirling, Oscar Alves, and Harry H. Hendon, 2022, The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and selected highlightsBAMS 103 (11), E2492-E2505, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0309.1.

Hope, P., M. Zhao, S. Abhik, G. Tolhurst, R. McKay, S. P. Rauniyar, L. Bettio, A. Ramchurn, E-P. Lim, A. S. Pepler, T. Cowan, A. Watkins, 2022, Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate forecasts provide the backbone of a near real-time Event Explainer service,Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2022), 103, S7-S13, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0253.1.

Cowan T., Wheeler M., de Burgh-Day C., Nguyen H., Cobon D., 2022, Multi-week prediction of livestock chill conditions associated with the northwest Queensland floods of February 2019, Scientific Reports Sci Rep 12, 5907, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09666-z.

Liang, J., Tan, M. L., Hawcroft, M., Catto J.L., Hodges K.I., Haywood, J.M., 2022, Monsoonal precipitation over Peninsular Malaysia in the CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments: The role of model resolution, Climate Dynamics (2022) 58, 2783-2805 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06033-y.

Westheimer, A., Balmaseda, M. A., Stockdale, T. N., Mayer, M., Boisseson, E. de, Sharmila, S., Hendon, H.H., Alves, O., 2022, Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th CenturyGeophysical Research Letters (2022), 49, e2022GL097885. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097885.

Heidemann, H., J. Ribbe, B. J. Henley, T. Cowan, C. Pudmenzky, R. Stone and D. H. Cobon, 2022, The Influence of Interannual and Decadal Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Australian Monsoon Rainfall, Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0264.1.

David Cobon, Chelsea Jarvis, Kate Reardon-Smith, Laura Guillory, Christa Pudmenzky, Shahbaz Mushtaq, Roger Stone, 2021, Northern Australia Climate Program - Supporting adaptation in rangeland grazing systems through more targeted climate forecasts, improved drought information and an innovative extension program Rangelands Journal - invited special issue on drought - Sept 2021, https://www.publish.csiro.au/RJ/RJ20074.

Nguyen, H., Wheeler, M.C., Otkin, J.A., Cowan, T., Frost, A., Stone, R., 2019.Using the evaporative stress index to monitor flash drought in Australia. Environmental Research Letters, 14(6), 064016.

Cobon, D.H., Kouadio, L., Mushtaq, S., Jarvis, C., Carter, J., Stone, G., Davis, P., 2019Evaluating the shifts in rainfall and pasture-growth variabilities across the pastoral zone of Australia during 1910-2010. Crop and Pasture Science, 70, pp. 634-647.

Cowan, T., Wheeler, M.C., Alves, O., Narsey, S., de Burgh-Day, C., Griffiths,M., Jarvis, C., Cobon, D.H., Hawcroft, M.K., 2019. Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019. Weather and Climate Extremes, 26.

Cobon, D.H., Darbyshire, R., Crean, J., Kodur, S., Simpson, M., Jarvis, C. Valuing Seasonal Climate Forecasts in the Northern Australia Beef Industry. Weather, Climate, and Society, 12(1).

Sharmila, S. & Hendon, H.H., 2020. Mechanisms of multiyear variations of Northern Australia wet-season rainfall. Nature Scientific Report, 10, 5086.

Pendergrass, A.G., Meehl, G.A., Pulwarty, R., Hobbins, M., et al., 2020. Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Nature Climate Change 10, pp. 191-199.

Nguyen-Huy, T., Kath, J., Mushtaq, S., Cobon, D., Stone, G., Stone, R., 2020. Integrating climate information and spatial diversification increases grazing profitability and decreases risk. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 40(4).

Cowan, T., Stone, R., Wheeler, M.C., Griffiths, M., 2020. Improving the seasonal prediction of Northern Australian rainfall onset to help with grazing management decisions. Climate Services, 19, 100182.

Sharmila, S., Walsh, K.J.E., Thatcher, M., Wales, S., Utembe, S., 2020. Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part I: high-resolution climate model verification Journal of Climate, 33(4), pp. 1455-1472.

Walsh, K.J.E., Sharmila, S., Thatcher, M., Wales, S., Utembe, S., Vaughan, A., 2020. Real world and tropical cyclone world. Part II: sensitivity of tropical cyclone formation to uniform and meridionally-varying sea surface temperatures under aquaplanet conditions. Journal of Climate, 33(4), pp. 1473-1486.

Cobon, D.H., Stone, G., Carter, J., McKeon, G., Zhang, B., Heidemann, H., 2020. Native pastures and beef cattle show a spatially variable response to a changing climate in Queensland, Australia. European Journal of Agronomy, 114, 126002.

Nguyen, H., Otkin, J.A., Wheeler, M.C., Hope, P., Trewin, B., Pudmenzky, C., 2020. Climatology and variability of the evaporative stress index (ESI) and its suitability as a tool to monitor Australian drought. Journal of Hydrometeorlogy, 21(10), pp.2309-2324.

Johnson, B.T., Haywood, J.M., Hawcroft, M.K., 2019. Are Changes in Atmospheric Circulation Important for Black Carbon Aerosol Impacts on Clouds, Precipitation and Radiation? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(14), pp. 7930-7950.

Lavender, S.L., McBride, J.L.,Global climatology of rainfall rates and life-time accumulated rainfall in tropical cyclones: Influence of cyclone basin, cyclone intensity and cyclone size, 2020. International Journal of Climatology, 41(S1), pp.E1217-E1235.

Heidemann, H., Ribbe, J., Henley, B.J., Cowan, T., Pudmenzky, C., Stone, R., Cobon, D.H., 2022. The Influence of Interannual and Decadal Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Australian Monsoon Rainfall. Journal of Climate, 35(1), pp. 425-444.

Cowan, T., Undorf, S., Hegerl, G.C., Harrington, L.J., Otto, F.E.L., 2020. Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves, Nature Climate Change, 10, pp. 505-510.

Cobon, D.H., Jarvis, C., Reardon-Smith, K., Guillory, L., Pudmenzky, C., Mushtaq, S., Stone, R., 2021. The Rangeland Journal 43(3), pp. 87-100.

Cowan, T., Hegerl, G., Schurer, A., Tett, S., Vautard, R., Yiou, P., Jezequel, A., Otto, F.E.L., Harrington, L.J., Ng, B., 2020. Ocean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heatwaves across central United States. Nature Communications, 11, 2870.

Grose, M., Narsey, S., Delage, F., Dowdy, A., Bador, M., Boschat, G., Chung, C., Kajtar, J., Rauniyar, S., Freund, M., Lyu, K., Rashid, H., Zhang, X., Wales, S., Trenham, C., Holbrook, N., Cowan, T., Alexander, L., Arblaster, J., Power, S., 2020. Insights From CMIP6 for Australias Future Climate. Earths Future, 8(5), e2019EF001469.

Domiesen, D., White, C.J., Afargan-Gerstman, H., Munoz, A.G., Janiga, M.A., Vitart, F., Wulff, C.O., Antoine, S., Ardilouze, C., Batte, L., Bloomfield, H.C., Brayshaw, D., Camargo, S.J., Charlton-Perez, A., Collins, D., Cowan, T., et al., 2022. Advances in the subseasonal prediction of extreme events, Bulletin of the American Meterological Society, published online 3 March 2022.

Darbyshire, R., Crean, J., Cashen, M., Rajin, M., Broadfoot, K., Simpson, M., Cobon, D.H., Pudmenzky, C., Kouadio, L., Kodur, S., 2020. Insights into the value of seasonal climate forecasts to agriculture, Australian Journal of Agricultural and resource economics, 64(4), pp. 1034-1058.

Mushtaq, S., Kath, J., Stone, R., Henry, R., Laderach, R., Reardon, P., Smith, K., Cobon, D.H., et al., 2020. Creating positive synergies between risk management and transfer to accelerate food system climate resilience. Climate Change, 161, pp. 465-478.

Cowan, T., Wheeler, M.C., Sharmila, S., Narsey, S., de Burgh-Day, C., 2022. Forecasting northern Australian summer rainfall bursts using a seasonal prediction system. Weather and forecasting, 37(1), pp. 23-44.

Ng, B., Cai, W., Cowan, T., Bi, D., 2021. Impacts of Low-Frequency Internal Climate Variability and Greenhouse Warming on El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate, 34(6), pp. 2205-2218.

Nguyen, H., Wheeler, M.C., Hendon, H.H., Lim, E., Otkin, J.A., 2021. The 2019 flash droughts in subtropical eastern Australia and their association with large-scale climate drivers. Weather and Climate Extremes, 32, 100321.

Lavender, S., Walsh, K.J.E., Utembe, S., et al., 2021. Estimation of maximum seasonal tropical cyclone damage in the Atlantic using climate models. Natural Hazards, 110, pp. 1025-1038.

Hawcroft, M., Lavender, S., Copsey, D., Milton, S., Rodriguez, J., Tennant, W., Webster, S., Cowan, T., 2021. The Benefits of Ensemble Prediction for Forecasting an Extreme Event: The Queensland Floods. Monthly Weather Review, 149, pp. 2391-2408.

Otkin, J.A., Zhong, Y., Hunt, E.D., Christian, J.I., Basara, J.B., Nguyen, H., Wheeler, M.C., Ford, T.W., Hoell, A., Svoboda, M., Anderson, M.C., 2021. Development of a flash drought intensity index. Atmosphere, 12(6), 741.

Liang, J., Catto, J.L., Hawcroft, M., Hodges, K.I., Leong Tan, M., Haywood., 2021. Climatology of Borneo Vortices in the HadGEM3-GC3.1 General Circulation Model. Journal of Climate, 34(9), pp. 3401-3419.

Lim, E.P., Hudson, D., Wheeler, M.C., Marshall, A., King, A., Zhu, H., Hendon, H.H., de Burgh-Day, C., et al., 2021. Why Australia was not wet during spring 2020 despite La Niña. Scientific Reports, 11, 18423.

McKeon, G., Stone, G., Ahrens, D., Carter, J., Cobon, D.H., Irvine, S., Syktus, J., 2021. Queenslands multi-year Wet and Dry periods: implications for grazing enterprises and pasture resources. Rangeland Journal, 43(3), pp. 121-142.

Kang, Xie, Shin, Kim, Hwang, Stuecker, Xiang, Hawcroft, 2020, Walker circulation response to extratropical radiative forcing, Science Advances (2020), 6, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abd3021.

Nguyen-Huy, T., Kath, J., Mushtaq, S., Cobon, D., Stone, G. and Stone, R., 2020. Integrating El Niño-Southern Oscillation information and spatial diversification to minimize risk and maximize profit for Australian grazing enterprises. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 40(1), p.4.

Chand, S.S., Dowdy, A.J., Ramsay, H.A., Walsh, K.J., Tory, K.J., Power, S.B., Bell, S.S., Lavender, S.L., Ye, H. and Kuleshov, Y., 2019. Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 10(5), p.e602.

Cowan, T., Wheeler, M.C., Alves, O., Narsey, S., de Burgh-Day, C., Griffiths, M., Jarvis, C., Cobon, D.H. and Hawcroft, M.K., 2019. Forecasting the extreme rainfall, low temperatures, and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019. Weather and Climate Extremes, 26, p.100232.

Kang, S.M., Hawcroft, M., Xiang, B., Hwang, Y.T., Cazes, G., Codron, F., Crueger, T., Deser, C., Hodnebrog, O., Kim, H. and Kim, J., 2019. ETIN-MIP Extratropical-Tropical Interaction Model Intercomparison Project–protocol and initial results. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Marshall, A. (2022) A NACP climate roadshow in Queensland’s Gulf Country. Research, Bureau of Meteorology

Marshall, A. (2021) Lessons learned in outback Western Australia. Research, Bureau of Meteorology

Chudleigh, P., Hardaker, T., Clarke, M (2020) Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Drought and Climate Adaptation Program (DCAP0819). Final Report, Department of Agriculture and Fisheries Queensland

Chudleigh, P., Hardaker, T., Clarke, M (2020) Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Drought and Climate Adaptation Program (DCAP0819). Final Report, Department of Agriculture and Fisheries Queensland, Northern Australia Climate Program (Phase 2)

COUTTS, J., SAMSON, A., COUTTS, B. & RENNIE, L. 2020 Monitoring and Evaluation Annual Report 2020. DCAP Phase 2

Pudmenzky, C. Guillory, L. Cobon, D. Nguyen-Huy, T., 2020. Methodology for producing the drought monitor, Northern Australia Climate Program (NACP). https://nacp.org.au/

David Cobon, Thong Nguyen-Huy & Kate Reardon-Smith 2019. Drought Outlook Product Review. Northern Australia Climate Program (NACP). https://nacp.org.au/

COUTTS, J., SAMSON, A., COUTTS, B. & RENNIE, L. 2019 Monitoring and Evaluation Annual Report 2019. DCAP Phase 2

COUTTS, J., SAMSON, A., COUTTS, B. & RENNIE, L. 2018 Monitoring and Evaluation Annual Report 2018. DCAP Phase 2

ICACS 2017. Output 3a Identify and provide a map for each industry of the decision-making requirements relevant for sub-seasonal and seasonal climate forecasting information, RRDfP1 USQ MS 4 Report. In: (ICACS), I. C. F. A. C. S. (ed.). Unpublished: University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba Qld, Australia.

COUTTS, J. R. 2017. Preliminary Benchmarking Survey Results, Queensland Government Drought and Climate Adaptation Program (DCAP). In: COUTTS, J. R. (ed.). Unpublished.

COUTTS, J., SAMSON, A., COUTTS, B. & RENNIE, L. 2017. DAF DCAP1 Interim M&E Progress Report. In: R, C. J. (ed.). unpublished.

Christa Pudmenzky, David Cobon, Shahbaz Mushtaq & Roger Stone. 2017 Final Report. Meat and Livestock Australia , North Sydney. P.PSH.0791

MUSHTAQ, S., COBON, D. H., PUDMENZKY, C., KATH, J. & REARDON-SMITH, K. 2016. Scoping study in support of a co-innovation R&D for Profit proposal, Final Report to Meat and Livestock Australia. North Sydney, NSW: Meat & Livestock Australia Limited. B.GFB.0003

Cobon, D.H., Baethgen, W.E., Landman, W., Williams, A., van Garderen, E.A., Johnston, P., Malherbe, J., Maluleke, P., Kgakatsi, I.B. and Davis, P., 2020. Agroclimatology in grasslands. Agroclimatology: Linking Agriculture to Climate, 60, pp.369-423.

Cobon DH, Terwijn MJ, and Williams AAJ (2017). Impacts and adaptation strategies for a variable and changing climate in 13 NATURAL RESOURCE REGIONS IN QUEENSLAND. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia. https://www.usq.edu.au/research/environmental-sciences/qdmc-drought

Cobon DH, Terwijn MJ, and Williams AAJ (2017). Impacts and adaptation strategies for a variable and changing climate in 13 NATURAL RESOURCE REGIONS IN QUEENSLAND. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia. https://www.usq.edu.au/research/environmental-sciences/qdmc-drought

Cobon DH, Terwijn MJ, and Williams AAJ (2017). Impacts and adaptation strategies for a variable and changing climate in 13 NATURAL RESOURCE REGIONS IN QUEENSLAND. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia. https://www.usq.edu.au/research/environmental-sciences/qdmc-drought

Cobon DH, Terwijn MJ, and Williams AAJ (2017). Impacts and adaptation strategies for a variable and changing climate in 13 NATURAL RESOURCE REGIONS IN QUEENSLAND. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia. https://www.usq.edu.au/research/environmental-sciences/qdmc-drought

Cobon DH, Terwijn MJ, and Williams AAJ (2017). Impacts and adaptation strategies for a variable and changing climate in 13 NATURAL RESOURCE REGIONS IN QUEENSLAND. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia. https://www.usq.edu.au/research/environmental-sciences/qdmc-drought

Cobon DH, Terwijn MJ, and Williams AAJ (2017). Impacts and adaptation strategies for a variable and changing climate in 13 NATURAL RESOURCE REGIONS IN QUEENSLAND. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia. https://www.usq.edu.au/research/environmental-sciences/qdmc-drought

Cobon DH, Terwijn MJ, and Williams AAJ (2017). Impacts and adaptation strategies for a variable and changing climate in 13 NATURAL RESOURCE REGIONS IN QUEENSLAND. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia. https://www.usq.edu.au/research/environmental-sciences/qdmc-drought

Cobon DH, Terwijn MJ, and Williams AAJ (2017). Impacts and adaptation strategies for a variable and changing climate in 13 NATURAL RESOURCE REGIONS IN QUEENSLAND. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia. https://www.usq.edu.au/research/environmental-sciences/qdmc-drought

Cobon DH, Terwijn MJ, and Williams AAJ (2017). Impacts and adaptation strategies for a variable and changing climate in 13 NATURAL RESOURCE REGIONS IN QUEENSLAND. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia. https://www.usq.edu.au/research/environmental-sciences/qdmc-drought

Cobon DH, Terwijn MJ, and Williams AAJ (2017). Impacts and adaptation strategies for a variable and changing climate in 13 NATURAL RESOURCE REGIONS IN QUEENSLAND. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia. https://www.usq.edu.au/research/environmental-sciences/qdmc-drought

Cobon DH, Terwijn MJ, and Williams AAJ (2017). Impacts and adaptation strategies for a variable and changing climate in 13 NATURAL RESOURCE REGIONS IN QUEENSLAND. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia. https://www.usq.edu.au/research/environmental-sciences/qdmc-drought

Cobon DH, Terwijn MJ, and Williams AAJ (2017). Impacts and adaptation strategies for a variable and changing climate in 13 NATURAL RESOURCE REGIONS IN QUEENSLAND. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia. https://www.usq.edu.au/research/environmental-sciences/qdmc-drought

Cobon DH, Terwijn MJ, and Williams AAJ (2017). Impacts and adaptation strategies for a variable and changing climate in 13 NATURAL RESOURCE REGIONS IN QUEENSLAND. International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia. https://www.usq.edu.au/research/environmental-sciences/qdmc-drought

Cobon, D.H., Stone, G.S., Carter, J.O., Scanlan, J.C., Toombs, N.R., Zhang, X., Willcocks, J. and McKeon, G.M., 2009. The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia. The Rangeland Journal, 31(1), pp.31-49.

Cobon, D.H., Bell, K.L., Park, J.N. and Keogh, D.U., 2008. Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland. The Rangeland Journal, 30(3), pp.361-374.

Keogh, D.U., Watson, I.W., Bell, K.L., Cobon, D.H. and Dutta, S.C., 2006. Climate information needs of Gascoyne–Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture, 45(12), pp.1613-1625.

Keogh, D.U., Bell, K.L., Park, J.N. and Cobon, D.H., 2004. Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in western Queensland. Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture, 44(3), pp.233-246.

Park, J.N., Cobon, D. and Crabb, D.M., 2001. Integrating climate forecasts and geospatial systems to enhance grazing management in northern Australia. In Geospatial Information and Agriculture Conference in Everleigh, NSW’.(NSW Agriculture: Sydney.).